Baseball Prospectus 2004: Statistics, Analysis and Insight for the Information Age

As in 2003, PROSPECTUS carries both actual and translated player statistics, making it an incredibly useful all-in-one resource. For the unitiated, "translated" player statists are the actual numbers adjusted for park and league effects. Some parks are friendly to hitters, while others are friendly to pitchers, for example. The theory is that without taking context into account, it is impossible to measure the value of players relative to one another. This book solves that problem, and has figured out ways of translating numbers from the minor leagues, as well as the Japanese league and the Mexican league. Invaluable.


THIS IS THE BASEBALL BOOK   March 9, 2004
9 out of 13 found this review helpful

This book is what any hardcore baseball fan wants. The stats, profiles, and even the extras are great. Could have arrived earlier but a great book like this makes you live with it. At 17.95, it is a bargain. So buy it if you are a hard core fan.


On the money   March 7, 2004
Aaron Armstrong (St. Louis, Mo. USA)
7 out of 10 found this review helpful

Anyone wanting to know why most baseball announcers have no idea what they are talking about should buy this book. Every fantasy leaguer should own a copy of this book They stick with the stats you will want to know and their analysis is spot-on. In the tradition of Bill James they take on the stats that no one else talks about. Need to know how to analyze stats from Mexico and Japan? Do you want to know if new stadiums really help? You should read their review of A-Rod before he was traded to the Yank's, excellent foresight. Maybe you just want an idea of what kind of year Milton Bradley, Bobby Crosby or any of 1200+ other MLB'ers and prospects might have. If any of this interests you then this is the book for you.


Excellent Statistical Guide   March 5, 2004
Milo Takanabi
14 out of 15 found this review helpful

I bought the Baseball Prospectus 2004 thinking that it would be a beefed up version of a fantasy magazine. I was pleasantly surprised that it was much more. I can see why baseball GMs read it. It offers excellent statistical analysis of the past performances of players and gives educated PECOTA projections for the future. I would bet the first thought of first-time readers when they open this book is "Wow, this is cool. I can't believe they did all this." That was my impression.

I must admit that I bought this book to help me in my fantasy league. I am not a baseball statistics purist or registered sabremetrician. I know many readers are though. For people like me, the Prospectus does not give projections for the standard 5x5 or roto categories, but gives OBP and OPS type stats. I understand that these have greater predictive value, but I would still like to know how many RBI the writers think Sammy Sosa is going to get. So I was wondering how to translate the insights from the Baseball Prospectus for my league.

I also bought the Fantasy Baseball Strategy book which I see Amazon is offering with the Prospectus. This is a very good pairing. That book's valuation approach also uses iteration to compare players to replacement players, or the ones not expected to be drafted, in each scoring category. So the statistical approach is very much inline with the Prospectus'. What I think is interesting is that the author really emphasizes the strategic and competitive aspects of fantasy baseball over the valuation process (which is only one of 11 chapters), mainly because most people focus on that. There is a really good section using Michael Porter's Competitive Advantage (Cost Leadership vs. Differentiation) principles that illustrates why. The two books compliment each other well. The point is, if you buy these books to help you in your league, use the Prospectus to gain statistical insights (Cost Leadership) and use the other book to form a strategy (Differentiation) based on those insights so they give you a practical advantage.

Whether you buy the Prospectus for fantasy or not, if you are a baseball fan, you really should get it. You will view baseball from a more objective perspective.